Ten years after the Paris Agreement, taking stock of 2035 climate action plans on the road to achieving the 1.5°C limit.
An emissions and energy analysis of G20 NDCs
Countries have made collective commitments to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5°C, to reduce emissions by 60% by 2035, to triple renewable energy and double energy efficiency by 2030, and to transition away from fossil fuels. But current targets, policies, measures, and financial support are not matching up and we are facing a substantial ambition and implementation gap. With all countries expected to bring in new 2035 targets by COP30, it was hoped that substantial progress would be made. By the middle of COP30 however many countries have not (yet) submitted new targets, and those who did have presented plans that collectively do not meet expectations. In particular, G20 countries – and especially the developed countries among them – who are responsible for the vast majority of global greenhouse gas emissions and the bulk of fossil fuel consumption, are failing to present adequate targets and measures.
The importance of the G20’s contribution to global climate action cannot be overstated. These major emitters account for almost 80% of current emissions and around 85% of global GDP, giving their policies outsized influence on global trade, investment and technology flows. In short, what G20 countries do – or fail to do – will determine whether the 1.5°C temperature limit remains in reach.
Yet taken together as a group, G20 countries’ submitted and announced 2035 targets would only lead to a reduction of 23% to 29% of their emissions compared to their emissions in 2019. This represents a serious shortfall compared to the global 60% reduction agreed in the Global Stocktake only two years ago.
Within the G20, developed countries bear the greatest responsibility, given their historic and current contribution to global emissions and their far greater capacity to act. Their emission reduction commitments should therefore be well in excess of 60%, accompanied by the provision of adequate climate fi nance to support action in developing countries. Many fall far short of 60% and none meet their fair share of the action required to meet this collective target. Taken together, G20 developed country NDCs amount to only a 51% to 57% reduction in emissions compared with 2019 levels, representing a glaring failure to lead by the countries that should be driving global ambition.
Beyond the emissions gap, all G20 country NDCs are failing to adequately contribute to the agreed energy transition. They lack both the necessary commitment to phase out fossil fuels as well as quantified targets for progress related to renewables and energy efficiency developments. Overall, G20 countries – home to the world’s largest producers and consumers of fossil fuels – off er NDCs that conspicuously lack credible, actionable plans to phase out the very fuels driving the climate crisis. Developed countries in particular stand out: though they bear the greatest responsibility to lead and move first and fastest, their NDCs come nowhere close.
At COP30, countries will need to adopt a Global Response Plan to tackle the mitigation ambition gap and ensure substantial and equitable progress is made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and phasing out fossil fuels. Progress on climate fi nance, especially the provision of significantly scaled up public fi nance by developed countries, will also be critical to unlock greater ambition from developing countries that need support.
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